News » April 1, 2009

Global Warming Accelerates

As sea levels rise faster than expected, political and social catastrophes loom.

By Kari Lydersen

Seagulls stand on an iceberg floating in a fjord near Ilulissat in Greenland.

'Whether there will be environmental refugees is not a question of 'if' but 'when, where and how we deal with it,'' says Church.

Sea levels are rising much faster than expected—perhaps by three feet or more by 2100, according to climate scientists at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in Chicago in February.

Scientists there also announced that global warming is increasing at a greater rate than the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted in its 2007 Fourth Assessment report.

For the last 15 years, sea levels, measured by satellite and by gauges in the ocean, rose twice as fast as in the past half century. And Stefan Rahmstorf, an oceanographer at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Change, notes that between 1961 and 2003, sea level has risen 50 percent faster than computer models predicted. Given these results, he said new modeling can’t yet be done “with any confidence.”

The sea level increase was brought on by melting ice sheets and glaciers, and the warming of the ocean, which causes water to expand. Because the effects of climate change on sea level have a long lag time, the expected rise by 2100 is merely the tip of the iceberg.

“In 100 years, we will only see a small fraction of the sea level rise we are setting in motion,” says Rahmstorf. Unless we immediately and significantly reduce emissions, he says, “We may commit our planet to a very long-term sea level rise measured in meters.”

Not only would a three-foot rise literally flood many cities, it would also have ripple effects that include food shortages, political conflicts and disease epidemics, as countries struggle to deal with millions of internally displaced people.

“Whether there will be environmental refugees is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when, where and how we deal with it,’ ” says John Church, a scientist with the World Climate Research Programme.

In the Pliocene era 3 million years ago, the sea level was 131 feet higher than it is today. During the last Ice Age, 20,000 years ago, the level was about 394 feet lower than today—and the average temperature then was roughly 40 degrees Farenheit colder.

But modern coastal development and industrialization have occurred under a period of temporary sea level stability—which likely would not have been maintained long term, even without the anthropogenic effects of climate change accelerating sea level rise.

Not only are scientists concerned about the overall rise in sea level, but also the expected increase in storm surges. Hurricanes have increased in strength and duration, an effect scientists attribute to climate change. And the trend is expected to continue.

While impoverished people in developing countries will be most affected, developed countries will also suffer. In the United States, rising sea level and increasing storm surges mean major floods will become common in places they have never happened before, catching many people without flood insurance. Already few private insurers offer flood coverage because the payouts are so great. The U.S. government picks up the slack through a flood insurance program administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). But if many more people suddenly need flood insurance, taxpayers may not be able to foot the bill.

In a worst-case scenario, melting ice sheets and glaciers in the Arctic region could cause severe chilling in the United States and Europe, because the influx of fresh water into the ocean could disrupt or slow thermohaline circulation. Also known as the “ocean conveyor belt,” this is the process whereby warm water from the tropics flows northward, moderating and warming the climate. When it hits the Arctic, it cools and sinks, then flows back toward the tropics. Some scientists fear extra fresh water from melting ice could prevent the water from sinking, and interrupt the cycle.

Finally, climate change is also making oceans more acidic. As the pH of the ocean drops, the calcium carbonate creatures—ranging from zooplankton to shellfish—will have a harder time making their shells. There have already been significant reductions or changes in calcium carbonate creatures because of acidification, with effects resonating up the food chain to marine mammals like walruses and even humans. If acidification continues, the oceans will likely be increasingly populated by jellyfish and other slimy, primordial creatures, scientists say.

As with other effects of climate change, acidification and sea level rise could trigger positive feedback loops that cause exponentially greater effects than otherwise predicted. An example of such a feedback loop would be the melting of Arctic permafrost, which releases massive quantities of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that would accelerate warming even more.

“The warmer you get the greater the burden from these feedbacks,” says Christopher Field, an author of the IPCC assessments. “When you get a runaway greenhouse effect is when the oceans boil. We don’t expect that. But it’s certainly possible we could have a world very unattractive by the standards we live by today.”

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• Reader Comments

  Environmental concerns have taken a back seat to the almighty worldwide economic crisis and the desires of all the big players who have a hand in the till.

  They don’t care about numbers such as the ones mentioned in this article, rather, they are overwhelmingly concerned with ones like bailout cash totals and stock market averages that define their own selfish interests. It will never truly change.

  Posted by patrick hattman on Apr 2, 2009 at 2:50 PM

  Warmer then colder then warmer again and then colder again too.
  Natural cycles are nothing to be afraid of.

  And if we humans are partially responsible for it being warmer or colder;
  that ain’t no biggy either.

  We have buttered our bread, now we have to sleep in it!

  Same goes for the new bogeyman called “worldwide economic crisis” too.

  Posted by Jiminy Cricket on Apr 7, 2009 at 4:18 AM

  I’ve been reading lately about anthropogenic, or “man-made,” global-warming, and it’s put a scare into me. I’ve compiled a list of 25 simple actions we can all take, immediately, to lessen our impact on the planet, decrease our “carbon footprints,” and just lead generally greener lives. 

  1. Educate yourself! Learn more about what you can do to keep man from destroying the earth.

  2. As much as possible, eat locally-grown, organic food.

  3. Use electric lighting and appliances as infrequently as possible. Electric power degrades the planet, too!

  4. Do not use a gas-powered lawn mower. Electric alternatives are available, and the most dedicated of us will use push mowers or forego mowing altogether.

  5. As much as possible, avoid driving or riding in or on a passenger automobile, truck, motorcycle, power scooter, or Segway. The most dedicated of us will avoid such modes of transportation at all times, opting instead to bike, walk or skateboard.

  6. Take cold and infrequent showers, using only soaps manufactured in low-CO2 emitting factories.

  7. If you use plastic grocery bags, reuse them as dog waste bags.

  8. Turn your car off if you’re going to be idle for more than seven seconds.

  9. Formaldehyde, an irritant and cancer-causing agent, is a common additive in interior-grade plywood and particleboard, drapery, and upholstery materials, so look for Formaldehyde-free materials. Formaldehyde is for preserving the organs of family and friends, NOT for homebuilding and decorative materials.

  10. Contaminants are tracked into homes on the soles of shoes. Consider becoming a shoe-less household or an outdoor-less family. In addition to avoiding outdoor contaminants, the low-level activity generally associated with exclusively indoor living will also help to minimize breathing-related CO2 emissions.

  11. Want to save at least a thousand gallons of drinkable water a year while maximizing your garden or compost heap? Urinate and defecate outside.

  12. Use cloth diapers for infants and the elderly. Urine is virtually sterile and nearly odorless, so reuse cloth diapers as frequently as possible before washing. Remove excessive fecal matter with a twig or a leaf, and toss it into your garden or compost pile. 

  13. There are many convenient ways to reuse items. In plastic food containers, store twigs and leaves to be used for removing fecal matter from cloth diapers. If nasal mucus is bloodless, use tissues more than once. Buy clothes from a thrift shop. Give your out-of-fashion clothes to friends.

  14. To clean a washing machine, instead of using harsh cleansing agents, run a regular cycle with one cup of vinegar or urine.

  15. Choose the least-toxic product for any household cleaning task. Plain water on a cloth works great for the vast majority of dusting chores. The most dedicated of us will substitute used tissue for cloth and urine for water. 

  16. Mercury is present in small quantities in fluorescent bulbs. These items must be disposed of at a hazardous waste collection site, and must never be inserted into any orifice.

  17. Wash clothes in cold water only, if at all.

  18. Don’t wear clothes—you can’t wash them much anyway. And the process of manufacturing clothing isn’t helping our planet.

  19. Use as little toilet paper as possible.

  20. Don’t wipe at all. The pungent odor won’t make you any friends, except the only one that really matters: Mother Earth.

  21. Do not use air conditioning or heat to cool or warm your home or your car (if you own a car, you climate criminal).

  22. Do not have children, or do not have any more children. Every time a human being exhales, he emits CO2. Children exhale almost as much as anyone.

  23. Do not exercise. When you exercise you emit even more CO2 than when you just sit there doing nothing.

  24. Sit there doing nothing. You won’t emit much CO2.

  25. Breathe as little as possible. Your very existence is indeed a great enviromental threat.

  Posted by Marty Kroft on Apr 21, 2009 at 9:31 PM

  “Given these results, he said new modeling can’t yet be done ‘with any confidence.’ “

  Given these results, it’s clear that climate models are unreliable.

  Posted by Marty Kroft on Apr 21, 2009 at 10:08 PM

  I know that you guys probably will delete me right away, but I will try anyway.

  You are not being told the truth here. I am a professional weather forecaster of almost a decade that has spent a great deal of time studying climate, the AGW issue, and paleoclimatology.

  In spite of wat these ‘scientists’ are telling you to secure funding, the earth’s climate is not warming at the moment, and the fear of sea level rise is also overblown. Global temperatures, unless they are ‘adjusted’, have been falling for half a decade. Likewise, if we are having catastrophic sea level rise, where is it? I guess that the extreme hurricanes predicted for the past few years didn’t show up either. Likewise, CO2 at even 500 is historically on the low side for our planet. Most of the earth’s history involves CO2 at 1,000-7,000ppm.

  While fresh melt water did interfere with the THC in younger Dryas, there is no similar modern day glacial lake to issue a shock to that system.

  I can go on and on, but why? I will settle now to tell you that hese people are lying to you to keep their funding. Would they have those high paying research gigs if they told you what I just did?

  The truth is that they are selfishly sucking up funding that should be spent on real issues like preparing the world for the climate minimum bearing down on us. Global cooling is much more deadly than warming.

  Posted by Dee Nyer on Apr 22, 2009 at 11:58 AM

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