Over the past fortnight, aided by both a gloves-off Republican Convention and the over-publicized Swift Boat liars attack on Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, the George W. Bush reelection campaign rebounded in both the popular vote and the electoral vote races. Since mid-August, Kerry’s 7 percent lead in the popular vote reversed into a Bush lead of 1-11 points, depending… return to article
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Reader Comments (45)Page 1 of 1 pagesI especially like the conspiracy theories at the end. (lol)
Posted by larry on Sep 11, 2004 at 4:18 PM How much evidence must be amassed, and then ignored by corporate media, before a “conspiracy theory” becomes a conspiracy?
Posted by Jon Seeley on Sep 11, 2004 at 8:16 PM Ummm Coleman didn’t win by 11 points. He won by 3, and the final result wasn’t certain until the early hours of the morning. Pretty sloppy research there.
Posted by Chris on Sep 11, 2004 at 9:30 PM “A few months ago, Mideast press reports warned that trucks hired by the United States were shipping weapons of mass destruction into Iraq—for timely discovery.”
Do you have a link or reference to the source of this statement?
Posted by Lisa on Sep 12, 2004 at 9:45 AM There is no way that “voting machines” had anything to do with Norm Coleman’s victory. Blame it on the Republicans who turned Paul Wellstone’s memorial service into a spinning masterpiece. Add that to the fact that, much as we 50-and-olders adore Walter Mondale, he had fewer than 10 days to try to get all those other voters to know who he is and how he would go forward.
But machinery? Nope.
Posted by Linda on Sep 12, 2004 at 10:02 AM You ever notice how only Republicans defend black-box voting? That’s because everyone knows that Republicans do not really value the principle of democracy. The repugs are the party of dishonesty and corruption, and would not hesitate to perpetrate the traitorous act of election fraud...you know, like in Venezuela, Iraq, Haiti, etc., etc.
Posted by Roger on Sep 12, 2004 at 10:25 AM “...Karl Rove, is widely believed to have a nasty trick or two up his sleeve.” Ha ha ha! Yeah, and scorpians are “widely believed” to have poison in their stingers. Great Whites are “widely believed” to have row upon row of flesh ripping teeth inside their mouths.
Posted by Bob on Sep 12, 2004 at 11:25 AM this administration will say and do anything to win. One way or another, shaninigans, and ofcourse, scaring the be-jesus out of the American people- will be adopted in order to continue in this admistration with no mandate from the people.
Posted by Isaiah on Sep 13, 2004 at 5:56 AM I love how Bin Laden’s capture is seen as a negative for the Democrats. That speaks volumes to me.
Posted by Jon on Sep 13, 2004 at 6:06 AM -- “A few months ago, Mideast press reports warned that trucks hired by the United States were shipping weapons of mass destruction into Iraq—for timely discovery.” --
Like Lisa, I would appreciate a link or reference to this.
Posted by Kevin Collins on Sep 13, 2004 at 6:10 AM “I love how Bin Laden’s capture is seen as a negative for the Democrats. That speaks volumes to me.”
This is ignorant. It’s the political manipulation of his capture that will be dispicable. Though I’d hope that Americans wouldn’t fall for such and obviously timed stunt. And Al Jazeera reported months ago about Bin Laden’s capture last winter…
Posted by Aaron on Sep 13, 2004 at 7:19 AM Al Jazeera said Bin Laden has already been captured? Then it must be true. This article makes Dan Rather look objective.
Posted by Goldwater on Sep 13, 2004 at 7:47 AM For Lisa and Kevin re the reports of US trucks bringing in WMD. I read those reports in SEVERAL places and by numerous reporters and over a period of several weeks in May and June I believe - possibly July as well. They were on Antiwar.com, WhatReallyHappened.com and I think I saw one on Al-Jazeera. You can go to these sites and send them an e-mail requesting those links and they should respond to you within a short time. (couple of days). This was in Pakistani news and Dawn as I recall but others as well. It was well documented.
Posted by Paula on Sep 13, 2004 at 10:06 AM http://www.google.com/custom?hl=en&lr;=&ie=ISO-8859-1&cof=AWFID:4ad83 39f59e83c2df;L:http://www.buzzflash.com/graphics/masthead2.gif;LH:89; 9;LW:606;AH:center;S:http://www.buzzflash.com/;&domains=www.buzz zflash.com&q=US+trucks+planting+WMD+in+Iraq&btnG=Google+Search&sitesearc ch;=
I realize that’s one heck of a long link (!) but that’s the Google search on one particular report on US trucks moving WMD into Iraq. They are Saudi and Jordanian reports as well as others.
Posted by Paula on Sep 13, 2004 at 10:29 AM Several state polls have shifted since this article of mine went to press.(I update the numbers daily at my Frog Blog: http://journalspace.frogblog.com). As of Monday afternoon, 9/14, Kerry leads by 88 electoral votes (301 to 213 with 24 tied). Tennessee went back to Bush while Florida and Colorado now very slightly lean Kerry; Ohio and Maine are currently tied.
Chris’s complaint above is due to an editor/proofreader error in the text above. What I original wrote was this: “Shockingly, Republican Norm Coleman was the recipient of an unexpected 11-point vote shift on Election Day—but no one checked the vulnerable chips that tabulated the votes.”
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 13, 2004 at 4:34 PM Man, I used to get chewed out for typos. Once, I cost our paper 5 grand because I had “open 8 AM to 8 AM” instead of PM. My boss actually yelled at me like my dad would have.
What happened to proofreaders?I don’t think anyone is going to buy the WOMD story, meaning if they DO ship them in for discovery that people will believe Saddam had hid them so well--it’s just too obvious of a trick. And if it does happen my wish is it gives Bush a look of desperation. The same can be said of finding bin Laden before the election.
Re-defeat Bush and his flunkies.
Posted by Neil on Sep 14, 2004 at 8:19 AM Oh..my...goodness. Great editorial decisions in the last 2 years guys. Great move with the website and now articles like this? Conspiracy theories of trucks brought in with WMD? This would be funny if it wasn’t pathetic.
Polls- Everybody look at Zogby, CBS, Wall Street Journal, Rassmussen, and a few from the other big houses. We’re losing. We’re losing electorally. We’re behind in the battlegrounds.
Time for get out the vote drives. Time to educate. Time to stop wasting my time on the these conspiracy theories. I mean, I’m a freaking liberal and I think this story is stupid.
Posted by Tack to Bee on Sep 14, 2004 at 9:33 AM Alan-
Does In These Times have some kind of fact checking procedure? Some kind of way to verify that articles don’t contain made up junk?
Is Alan Waldman the new pen of Jayson Blair? The below are links to people that actually do polling. You know, professionals. I could throw in 5 more if you need em.
Research buddy. Helps everytime.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
http://www.gallup.com/election2004/
http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/election04/polls.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/04/americas_us_election_polls/html l/1.stm
Posted by Tack to Bee on Sep 14, 2004 at 9:49 AM The rebound is true. I’ve been following polls and check daily. The gap between the candidates has narrowed significantly and in some polls they are tied. I also notice in most electoral projections Kerry is ahead again. The internals in the latest Rasmussen poll show the tide is turning back to Kerry.
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm
http://www.geocities.com/wubwub/bushkerrystate2004.html
Posted by Becky on Sep 14, 2004 at 10:42 AM Dear Tack to Bee,
You can call me all the names you like, but ITT painstaking fact-checked all my figures with me. I routinely consult a dozen polling sites (including some you cited) before I change any of my figures each day at Frog Blog and before I sent them to ITT.One excellent site (of many) that I consult is
Race 2004 (http://www.race2004.net/). I also study conservative sites such as The Blogging Caesar
(http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html), Polling Report.com, and Rasmussen. I do throw out polls from GOP pollsters such as (which the main Milwaukee newspaper caught asking loaded poll questions) and Strategic Vision, as well as Democratic pollsters such as Democracy Corps. I’ll stand behind any of my figures as current and reliable.As Paula noted above, the wild-sounding stories about trucking MWDs into Iraq for “discovery” was well reported in several countries in May and June (but not in mainstream American media, which are strongly dependent on access to the Bush Administration and therefore often tow the administration line in many areas).
Alan Waldman
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 14, 2004 at 11:13 AM Whoops,
In re-writing the above item I accidentally omitted the name of the G.O.P. polling company that was caught asking questons like “Do you favor George Bush over John Kerry, who faked his Vietnam injuries?” It is MOORE.
Alan Waldman
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 14, 2004 at 11:16 AM Man oh man! You guys know about the WMD we are putting in Iraq!?! Damn! Dick swore that it was our little secret.
And you also know that Dick has been playing golf with Osama? Turns out he was the mastermind of 911 - but hey, it gives the “good guys” a boost in the polls, so what the hey? But i plan to have him arrested just in time for the election - and he will campaign for that Dem Kerry, since that is the only way he will get a “get out of jail card for free”.
I better get Connie on this one. . .
Posted by GWB on Sep 14, 2004 at 2:20 PM Update: Today (Sept. 14), Bush regained narrow leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (according to Rasmussen), cutting Kerry’s electoral vote lead from yesterday’s 88 to only 26. The latest national popularity poll (also Rasmussen) drops Bush’s lead to only 1%--meaning the RNC attack-dog bounce is over.
And Princeton University polling analyst Prof. Sam Wang, who had put Kerry’s chances of electoral-vote victory at 61% before the RNC, revised it down to 53% shortly afterwards and most recently (9/14) has bumped it back up to 59%.
Finally, on 9/13, an Investor’s Business Daily poll found that Kerry had a 12% lead in battleground states, a 10% lead among independents and by 29% in urban areas (with Bush up by 14% in suburbs and 21% in rural areas). Kerry leads by 29% among those who have lost jobs or who fear job losses and by 15% among “non-investors” (while Bush is up by 10% among investors).
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 14, 2004 at 4:11 PM I can’t for the life of me understand why people place so much faith in “polls.” They change daily, as we all know. They never agree even marginally. “Polling” by all the major media in 2000 on election day, and trying to be the “first” to predict the winner, is responsible for all the wasted time and money of the last debaucle of an election. If polls influence your vote, you may as well stay home.
Posted by Haddit on Sep 14, 2004 at 4:47 PM http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
This site links to large number of established polling outfits. Click on the “battleground” link to the right if you want key specifics. Look at an average of all the polls.
It’s interesting in his article he doesn’t source any of his numbers. How could you write an article like this and not source? Does In These Times conduct its own nationwide polling that I’m unaware of?
This article is a joke. Looking forward to more “updates” from the internal In These Times numbers.
Posted by Tack to Bee on Sep 15, 2004 at 8:22 AM Final Comment to Tack to Bee,
I read Real Clear Politics every day, but their “averages” are meaningless because they are outdated.I didn’t source all my numbers in the page because this isn’t a scholarly journal article with footnotes but is a brief update of recent polls. I have multiple sources (up to a dozen) for every figure, including the ones you mention.
You are ill-informed, reactionary and annoying. I will not reply to you again, as I find your mockery and ill-justified condescention irritating. From now on, anyone who wants to see my daily updates on new polls is welcome to go to Frog Blog at the address above. If my efforts to share breaking news is not appreciated, then nuts to you and any like you. My time is too valuable to waste on neanderthals.
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 15, 2004 at 11:35 AM Alan, If we could only get Kerry to start reacting like you we would have a more interesting race! Actually Kerry is picking up steam and I am pleased. On another note I tried clicking on the frog blog but didn’t get anywhere. I also added the www thinking maybe that was the problem. Could you give post the site again?
Posted by candace on Sep 15, 2004 at 3:55 PM Dear Candace,
Frog Blog is at: http://frogblog.journalspace.com/Tragically, it reports that Bush just snatched a 38-electoral vote lead, by taking back Nevada, Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin. However, Kerry has improved markedly in the popular vote.
Other tidbits it shares include these:
1) The Economist learned (on 9/15) that 55% are dissatisfied with the country’s direction (and only 41% are satisfied), that only 45% approve of Bush’s job performance (vs. 51% disapproving), that Kerry beats Bush by 60% to 31% for the aged 18-24 vote, he leads by 10% among women, a majority believes Bush is lying about his National Guard service and 13% favor Kerry on keeping their Medicare premiums low.2) Pot May Fight Cancer--We Predicted This 40 Years Ago (cough);
3) California Sues Diebold, Charging Its Voting Machines Can Be Rigged;
4) Most Countries Prefer Kerry; and
5) George Jr . Sent out of Texas by Father as a “Drunken Liability.”
Enjoy.
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 15, 2004 at 4:17 PM Someone just sent me a recent (today) CBS poll that shows Kerry ahead in Illinois by only 4%. Could this really be true?
Posted by candace on Sep 16, 2004 at 9:21 AM “Someone just sent me a recent (today) CBS poll that shows Kerry ahead in Illinois by only 4%. Could this really be true?”
-----
Yes, it’s true. Kerry’s going down everywhere. In less than two months we’ll finally be rid of John Kerry and his embarrassing wife.
Posted by York on Sep 16, 2004 at 10:16 AM Alan Waldman wrote: “Most Countries Prefer Kerry.”
----------
Well Alan, maybe the American people should just sit this one out and let the rest of the world choose our next President. I mean surely, they have OUR best interest in mind, not their own.
Posted by York on Sep 16, 2004 at 11:12 AM Today (9/16) Bush took an 88 electoral-vote lead, grabbing former Kerry stalwart states New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
Kerry baiters can enjoy that over the next decade, as they pay for Bush’s $1 trillion in tax cuts for the richest 1%--with much more to come.
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 16, 2004 at 12:20 PM Final comment to York;
You are a bit intolerant of and vicious toward people whose views differ from yours. Perhaps you should lie down and mellow out. As to calling me and Candace names and questioning our intelligence: my I.Q. was tested at 147 and you can’t even spell “imbecile.”
Comment to all others,
Yesterday, Friday, Bush’s electoral vote lead rose to 79 when he reagained the Colorado lead and Minnesota went from Kerry to a tie. Details at Frog Blog.
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 17, 2004 at 11:08 AM Clarification: The three Bush tax cuts will cost America about $1.7 trillion, and 52% of that is going to the richest 1% of Americans. We are all paying for that giveaway to his wealthiest contributors through increased state and local taxes (to make up for federal cuts to those entities), lost federal services and benefits, damage to the economy, widely expanded debt service and much, much more. Literally, 99% of us are losing money on the Bush tax giveaways, and his lies can’t hide that fact.
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 17, 2004 at 11:18 AM I am one of the 1% and I am still doing everything I can to make sure he doesn’t get reelected. Thanks for the link to frog blog.
Posted by Candace on Sep 17, 2004 at 11:29 AM York, you’re a typical representative of the Republican Party when you spew such hateful comments.
and with all this talk about Democrats hating America. No, we just hate people like you and your monkey Bush. People like you who truly hate America, free speech, consitutitonal democracy, civil rights, minorities, women, and our place in the world. And not to mention anyone who is smarter than you and can prove a point.
I only hope someone like you can’t breed or spread your hateful seed anywhere in this world.
I also hope to be laughing my ass off when Bush loses in November. For such hateful, racist, sexist and arrogant statements you’ve been posting all over this site and for being such a bully, Bush losing in an embarassing landslide is exactly what you deserve. Bush deserves prison for his crimes.
nowhere in any of your statements have you backed up any of your “points” with something like, say, a fact. Oh, wait, you’re a Republican so you don’t take facts and sources into consideration. you just use bias and hate.
do you kiss your mother with a filthy mouth like that?
Posted by stan on Sep 17, 2004 at 6:35 PM I doubt anyone is still reading this old article, but if you happen to wander back here, today (9/20) Bush leads by a whopping 92 electoral votes. On the other hand, the three latest national popularity polls show him leading Kerry only by 3%. More details are at Frog Blog.
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 20, 2004 at 1:30 PM To those who have complained about threatening posts by some of our readers, this is a note to let you know that we have recorded the offending visitors IP address and Internet Service Provider and will be taking action to restrict further inappropriate postings.
Thanks,
Seamus Holman
Webmaster
Posted by seamus on Sep 20, 2004 at 3:32 PM A happy update: Late on Monday, Zogby came out with 16 new polls, and they erase Bush’s 92-vote lead, replacing it with a 33-electoral vote advantage for Kerry. Kerry regained narrow leads in Arkansas, Florida and New Hampshire, and took back Gore states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. He also significantly boosted his leads in New Mexico, Oregon, Illinois and New York (which had sagged lately).
In addition, he took off the gloves at NYU and took Bush to the woodshed over Iraq and Afghanistan.
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 20, 2004 at 6:47 PM As of 9/28, Bush held a 45-electoral vote lead.
Further details at http://frogblog.journalspace.comHowever, NYT recently reported that new Democratic voters exceed new G.O.P. registered voters 10-fold in Ohio and 20-fold in Florida. A glimmer of hope.
Posted by Alan Waldman on Sep 28, 2004 at 8:18 AM You moonbats live in a dreamworld. You have a choice of either drinking hour poisoned Kool-Aid™ or wake up, smell the coffee, and starting dealing with reality.
John Fraud Kerry was never in a position to win this election. It was only left-wing media bias and the unending filthy lies being promoted by $300 million dollars worth of Democrap 527s which kept you guys even in the ball game. Otherwise Bush would have won by 12 points and probably by 100 electoral votes. But that’s pure speculation at this point.
As I’ve said on other blogsites, the radical left has gotten far better lying to itself than lying to the rest of America.
By the way, any real objective observer knows Bush won the last two debates on substance hands down. Given the election results, you guys have proven once again you live in la la land. I hope you stay this way because you will hand 2008 to the Republicans. Michael Mooron, you guys and the Hollyweird crowd was the best thing that happened to the Bush campaign. The litany of lies (the CBS Memogate scam and the NYT “missing explosives” fraud) were probably the only real thing to negatively impact George W since American still have some shred of respect for the Fourth Estate. But this election has changed all that too. Thank God for conservative bloggers and alternate, credible online news sources that aren’t left-wing.
Posted by libswurstnitemare™ on Nov 5, 2004 at 12:16 PM I have an article at http://www.orlandoweekly.com/news/Story.asp?ID=4688 and (at greater length and detail, and more recently updated) at http://frogblog.journalspace.com/ about how the 2004 election was hacked and stolen. I have submitted it to IN THESE TIMES but don’t know if they will publish it. The mainstream media has locked this story down. At this point, however, Kerry’s concession has not legal value and several states are doing recounts. The electoral college doesn’t vote until Dec. 13 and Bush could still be defeated by honest recounts in Florida, Ohio and elsewhere. This is not paranoid conspiracy theory; my article is chock full of detailed information.
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