China and India are locked in an increasingly aggressive wrangle with the United States over the world’s most critical economic commodity: oil. More than any other issue, this tussle will shape the economic, environmental and geopolitical future of these three countries, and the world. Ensuring a steady flow of cheap oil has always been one of the central goals of U.S.… return to article
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Reader Comments (36)Page 1 of 1 pagesIts not as easy as dumping the SUVs. Demand will out strip supply even without SUVs…eventually. To o many people trying to share too little oil. We are in for a rude awakening.
Posted by AC on Jan 31, 2005 at 8:46 PM “There are also signs that China is warming to the idea of a Russia–China–India axis, which, in cooperation with Iran, would turn the oil-rich Central Asian region into their domain….”
150,000 troops to secure Iraq? For what?
You might as well start planning for Armageddon now, because the only response we’re gonna have is to empty the missile silos.
Posted by Liberal AND Proud on Jan 31, 2005 at 8:56 PM USA, the worlds only remaining superpower. USA being China + India, the United States of Asia. Buckle up Uncle Sam, you’re in for a rough landing.
Posted by theloneous on Jan 31, 2005 at 9:32 PM Watching the elections in Iraq has been very heartening! Perhaps this nation building thing might work after all. . .
But that will not solve our oil problems. Neither would a trillion trillion barrels of oil.
Greenhouse gases and oil - linked forever.
The time to worry about oil is past. New technologies will make it long obsolete before the “crisis” actually arrives. . .
Might as well worry about buggy whip shortages.
Posted by youHaveToAdmit on Jan 31, 2005 at 9:50 PM “The time to worry about oil is past. New technologies will make it long obsolete before the “crisis” actually arrives. . .
Might as well worry about buggy whip shortages.”
I hope you’re right, but you can’t know that with any certainty. Could be that the oil crisis will be bunk like the over-population crisis. Could be that we won’t find an alternative to oil and it’ll be hell on Earth.
Posted by boughtmysoul on Feb 1, 2005 at 12:37 AM Between the increased oil burning from Asian oil axis countries and the increased coal use in America, Japan, etc as oil gets harder to buy (or take by force), the carbon load in the atmosphere will continue going through the roof. The aggregate plant life on the planet is already unable to recapture carbon fast enough to match the amount being poured into the atmosphere. Even if world population were to stabilize at around 8 billion over the next century, which is optimistic on the order of fantasy, the stress placed on the stability of the carbon cycle will not reduce. There’s a real chance that our descendants 200 years hence will hate our memories with a bitter passion for using up every good thing on the planet in a few generations and leaving nothing but a hot, hungry, fucked up mess behind, with misery and little pieces of plastic all around as our legacy.
Posted by Kuya on Feb 1, 2005 at 8:57 AM This may seem like an obvious statement, but maybe not. Having recently moved to California it stirkes me that solar panels placed on the roofs of every building in that state alone would make a noticable difference in the oil and coal consumption of the entire nation.
Everywhere I go I just see amazing opportunities for the generation of cheap electricity, be it solar, wind or wave. I am talking about huge amounts of power, and all it would take is the will.
Unfortunately the people in control of this country are not in a position to make easy and excessive profits from renewable power sources. Oil dependancy to them is like a drug dealer who has a guaranteed customer in the form of the junkie. Transfer your source of energy from oil to renewable sources and you lose your monopoly, ordinary citizens suddenly control the means of production (to use a phrase).
It’s the same principle as the everlasting light bulb, or the cure to AIDS. It will never happen as long as there is a profit to be made from light bulbs that bust and patients who need constant and expensive treatments.
As long as there are oil reserves to be burned, and more importantly, individuals who own that oil sitting in positions of power, you will never see any meaningful movement to renewable sources.
Solar and wind, wave and hydrogen fuel cells would, in theory, put ordianary citizens in charge of their own power supplies. No more money wasted at the petrol pump, no more covert taxation of ordinary people by the rich. Wouldn’t you like to keep the money you earn rather than having it send some oil company’s executive’s kids to college.
The technology exists, and is improving everyday. The only problem is the right wing political establishment who want to keep everything as it is for the time being. They’re not called conservatives for nothing. They love the status quo for one very simple reason, it’s making them very rich. Well just a reminder, the business ‘elite’ are getting rich at your expense, and there exist alternatives.
Posted by Renewable on Feb 1, 2005 at 12:32 PM While it`s true that certain people benefit financially from petroleum usage and hence would like to see its use continue, the fact is that petroluem is still cheap, abundant for now, *very* reliable as a source of energy (unlike, say, solar or wind energy), easily transportable, and pretty efficient. In other words, we don`t use oil just because we`re being manipulated by some cabal of rich people; we use it because it works so damn well.
Posted by boughtmysoul on Feb 1, 2005 at 3:17 PM CEO Calls for Major Hydrogen Project in name of Our Security, Our Economy, Our Environment and Our Future
“True American Patriot” - Timothy D. Leuliette, CEO of Automotive Supplier, Metaldyne.
This speech by Tim Leuliette to the 2005 Automotive World Congress (Jan 19 2005) concerning the problem of an oil economy and the role / future of the US automotive industry in leading the way into a hydrogen economy has started a real “grassfire” and has made its way to DC and back to Detroit… PASS IT ON.
This is a critical “National Security” and “National Economy” issue, period.
LINK to Transcript:
http://www.metaldyne.com/metaldyne/sections/news/news_speeches.aspSome Leuliette QUOTES:
“[...] there is actually a more significant challenge for all of us in this industry and in this country [that the standard past industry issues]. It’s an issue we raise periodically and then put away when concerns fade from the nightly news. It’s an issue we like not to talk about unless we have to. It’s an issue that with one senseless act, one government collapse, one hiccup in a global distribution system, will become our worst nightmare. The issue is the drug that our industry, our society, is hooked on… it’s called oil.”
[break]
“We are at the beginning of a journey [to a hydrogen economy], and have many technological issues to overcome, but they can be overcome. Those who support this path, do so for three fundamental reasons. First, we must find an alternative energy source for national security reasons. Second, we must find an alternative energy source for environmental reasons. And third, we must find an alternative fuel source for fundamental long-term economic reasons. How you rank these reasons is your own concern, but the answer doesn’t change.”
[break]
“The $1.2 billion Hydrogen Fuel Initiative that President Bush announced in his State of the Union two years ago aims for fuel cell technology to reach the automotive consumer by 2020, and for hydrogen technology to significantly reduce this country’s oil usage by 2040. The current plan outlines a timetable ten times longer than the Manhattan project.and four times longer that putting a man on the moon. Ladies and gentlemen, I am absolutely convinced that we don’t have that kind of time. We don’t have anywhere near that kind of time…$1.2 billion is a token gesture.”
[break]
“The solution will not come from Washington.but enabling legislation and the money will. This is more important than sending a man to Mars, and it’s more important than subsidizing tobacco farmers to grow a product that we are, at the same time, trying to dissuade usage because of its health risks. It is more important than particle beam weapons, and it is more important than the $15 billion Big Dig project in Boston. We are talking about true energy independence. We are talking about eliminating the leverage that radical Islam has over this country. We are talking about disconnecting this nation from the oil thirst the new China will impart upon the world’s producers.”
[End Leuliette Quotes]
Hold George W. Bush responsible to act on these statements made February 2002 following a meeting with Automotive Fuel Cell experts at the White House:
“And this dependence (on foreign oil) is a challenge to our economic security, because dependence can lead to price shock and fuel shortages. And the dependence on foreign oil is a matter of national security. To put it bluntly, sometimes we rely upon energy sources from countries that don’t particularly like us.”
“We happen to believe that fuel cells are the wave of the future; that fuel cells off incredible opportunity”
“Imagine when that technology comes into being, imagine how less dependent American will be on foreign sources of energy, and how easy it’ll be to clean up our air. But we need to have a focused effort to bring fuel cells to the market, and that’s exactly what my administration is dedicated to do.”—GW Bush
Every American can understand this topic, the true cost of defending foreign oil interests, and continuing misadventures in Iraq and elsewhere just fuel the flames of hate. Its time for flames of blue.
Target funding for achieving major objectives in Fuel Cells and related Hydrogen Technology development is estimated to be $16.8B, that is just three months of what we are spending on current operations in Iraq.
Its not Mars or Mecca stupid, its Marathon.
Posted by GetOilOut on Feb 1, 2005 at 5:14 PM boughtmysoul, for your information solar panels are about as reliable as you can get if you live in a region that gets a decent percentage of yearly sunshine sun. It’s all a matter of what is appropriate for a certain set of circumstances. There are a lot of different ways to create electicity, all it takes is imagination and the willingness to initially make the investment. The wonderful thing about all the different solutions to the energy problem is that once set up they eventually pay for themselves and then you can make money by selling electricity back to the grid.
All that is needed here is for say twenty percent of our countries energy consumtion to originate from alternative means and a tipping point would hopefully be reached. Oil would lose some of its value to us and serious investment in even newer technologies could perhaps begin.
The point is I was not talking earlier about people just making an honest buck by producing and selling oil. The amounts of wealth involved are astronomical. We are talking about personal fortunes of hundreds of millions, even billions. For these people it’s not about the money, it’s about power. For these people the US has gone to war, slaughtering thousands upon thousands of innocent people in the process. And for what? Basically to make sure these personal fortunes keep getting bigger and bigger.
Then there is the environmental issue? This one really is a no brainer. Oil may be cheap and reliable, but it’s use creates a poison, plain and simple. We in America have a special responsibility to ourselves and the world to cut down on our consumption of fossil fuels, as we are by far the largest single polluter on the planet. In response to this fact what do we do, cut down our usage, no, we invade and intimidate other countries in order to control more oil.
And for ‘control’ read ‘make a large profit from’.
Posted by Renewable on Feb 1, 2005 at 10:12 PM I have read that there is enough potential windpower in the plains states to power the entire US electricity grid. The Rosebud Sioux tribe of South Dakota is making a start, having already brought online one wind turbine to supply homes on its reservation with plans for a larger wind farm. All it takes is sufficient motivation and bucks to deal with electricity, but until the electric or hydrogen cell car technology catches up all those SUV’s are still gonna need oil from somewhere.
Posted by hobbitess on Feb 1, 2005 at 10:56 PM Planning and policy initiatives in the USA, China & India favor private vehicles over mass transit as well as an emphasis on large-scale road building. China is now one of the largest producers of cars; the government gives incentives to purchase private vehicles and discourage bicycle use. This policy is crazy on one level because China has some of the world’s worst air pollution. Energy sustainability will require a massive mental shift in planning & policy in all countries. The USA is not leading by in this area either.
Posted by carbuff on Feb 1, 2005 at 11:56 PM Despite all the dark and violent possibilities, there are some positive things that could change them. I read recently about a patent issued to a group of scientists (one of them was in Toronto,Canada) who have developed a new type of solar cell. Instead of a silicon (layered) based cell, it is polymer based. What this means is that it is MUCH cheaper to manufacture and that it could be painted onto any surface!! As an added bonus, apparently it absorbs not only the visible spectrum of light but also the infra red. This means that it uses 30% of the suns energy falling on any area!! Note: infra red also penetrates through clouds. The possibilties are quite real for a sustainable energy economy using many different methods to generate power. Even BMW is talking with the United Arab Emirates to put solar cells in their extensive desert and use the power to make Hydrogen which they can then export much like they do oil. (BMW has developed a combustion engine that uses hydrogen instead of fuel cells. Simply use different injectors and fuel tank)
so, yes, there is always the possiblity of armageddon, but if we can work towards positive goals rather than old-minded militaristic modes of thinking, like warring over a dwindling supply of some valuable then maybe we can build ourselves and more importantly our children, a better world.
Posted by Northman on Feb 2, 2005 at 4:04 AM Northman, you’ve got it exactly right. There is one problem though. There are many vested interests who do not care about the general good, and will do whatever they can to prolong the transfer to sustainable power sources as long as possible, no matter what they say to the contray. Bush for instance is the least Green political leader the western industrialised world has ever seen, yet he talks green. It is all lies.
If bush had wanted to make renewble energy a priority he could have spent a fraction of what he is currently spending on the war in Iraq to promote and develop already existing technology.
He has done nothing of the sort, and his rhetoric becomes more and more laughable, or sickening, with every new dead America soldier that returns home in a body bag.
Posted by Renewable on Feb 2, 2005 at 5:41 AM I would be very interested to see any hard data about wattage of electricity generated by solar panels, wind turbines, hydrogen cells etc and one big challenge is wading through unsubstantiated claims of performance, advertisements, idealized projections, and the like. I’d be particularly interested to see information drawn from actual usage by consumers or energy suppliers in ordinary circumstances (i.e. not hypothesized or based on “ideal” conditions). If anyone has links to data-from-use, I would be very appreciative; I have a strong personal interest. Gracias in advance.
Posted by Kuya on Feb 2, 2005 at 6:41 AM The only way a Bush can get to DC is by theft and dishonesty while at the same time telling us of their love of the Lord (they think most of us want to hear this)!
My opinion of these high energy obligations we have to meet this day, is very simple…the Bush clan are oil oriented and support policies that will assist their oil buddies who gave them big money during the campaign! They HAVE to be paid back and it is on the backs of the masses in this country…of which are average income individuals who cannot really afford these high prices at the pump and our home energy costs!
I know that a majority of we voters wanted Senator Kerry in Washington, but when you are dealing with people who will readily (without a conscience) pull dirty tricks while professing their love of the Lord and hiding behind our flag, it is very tough to prevail!
Democrats just HAVE to become more combative and take on these rascals or we will never win an election again…the thuglicans have perfected a system of deceivery that works every time, and we must overcome their “sly as a fox” disengenuousness!
What is this country coming to anyway!
Posted by a. w. mcfarling on Feb 2, 2005 at 6:51 AM A.W. Mcfarling, Ghandi was tough, Martin Luther King was tough, Nelson Mandela was tough. Mandela spent 27 years in prison and still came out in support of peace, that took incredible discipline and strenght. John Kerry risked his life in Vietnam, then came back and on principle protested the war, despite a huge amount of criticism. Liberals are tough people, period.
The problem with this country is that people have forgotten that they are allowed to answer back, to demostrate, to say no. People in general it seems have simply believed the conservative hype.
What sort of Amereica is it were supporting an international murderer is considered patriotic? Bush has five times more blood on his hands now than Osama Bin Laden. That will never go away, it cannot be undone. Those people cannot be dug up from their graves and have life breathed back into them. At the present time this country’s values are simply upside down. People, it seems, can no longer tell right from wrong.
Posted by Matilda Gatsby on Feb 2, 2005 at 8:27 AM The strategists have a saying:
I dare not be a host, but rather a guest;
I dare not advance an inch, but rather retreat a foot.
This is called marching without moving,
Rolling up one’s sleeves without baring one’s arms,
Capturing the enemy without confronting him,
Holding a weapon that is invisible.There is no greater calamity than to under-estimate the strength of your enemy.
For to under-estimate the strength of your enemy is to lose your treasure.Therefore, when opposing troops meet in battle, victory belongs to the grieving side.
Lao Tzu—TAO TE CHING #69A good soldier is never aggressive;
A good fighter is never angry.
The best way of conquering an enemy
Is to win him over by not antagonizing him.
The best way of employing a man
Is to serve under him.
This is called the virtue of non-striving!
This is called using the abilities of men!
This is called being wedded to Heaven of as of old!
Lao Tzu— TAO TE CHING #68A principle of martial arts is to turn an opponent’s strength back upon them.
Our greed has enabled China.—-J. Hoover Bushwah
Posted by J. Hoover Bushwah on Feb 2, 2005 at 8:41 AM GetOilOut in post above quotes Metaldyne’s CEO
Timothy D. Leuliette,
“The $1.2 billion Hydrogen Fuel Initiative that President Bush announced in his State of the Union two years ago aims for fuel cell technology [....] by 2020, and for hydrogen technology to significantly reduce this country’s oil usage by 2040.”
Wow! Didn’t anybody tell him that hydrogen is NOT an energy source, but a form of energy, typically made by reforming hydrocarbons (e.g. oil), a very polluting process? That’s why the oil companies love the ‘hydrogen economy,’ it’ll keep them in business forever.
Posted by chemeng on Feb 2, 2005 at 4:55 PM The Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is a hoax. Take a closer look at GM’s prototypes, the AUTOnomy, the Hywire and the Sequel. Computer-controlled steering, braking and accelleration is nonsense. Any disruption of this control system is hazardous. And, their in-wheel electric motor’s lack of shock absorption and exposure to the elements predicts breakdowns, unreliability and more safety hazards.
Consider this question: Can hydrogen be generated, compressed and stored at household level, as can Hybrid-drive technology? No. The process is too complicated. But, Hybrid batteries can be recharged by solar panels or the electricity grid during the off-peak period.
When Hybrids carry a larger battery pack, this weight lowers vehicle center-of-gravity, improving stability and handling, perfect for SUVs that are prone to rollover. Such battery packs serve a dual purpose as reliable homepower in the event of a grid power failure.
Most important, the batteries create an economic incentive to drive only the shorter distances that battery power supplies. This encourages the strengthening of local economies, whereby many travel needs, then much closer to home, can be met without having to drive. Mass transit also functions better for a walking/bicycling public.
So why have Bush and the Big 3 Automakers dumped Hybrid technology for Hydrogen fuel cell? Answer: As Renewable posted, the Big 3 can control Hydrogen, but they can’t control Hybrid battery power. The car, no matter how fueled, is merely a link in the chain of globalization - the weakest link. We drive too much, too far, for too many purposes at too high cost and impact. The era of the automobile is over.
Posted by Sirkulat on Feb 2, 2005 at 9:00 PM Kuya, there’s some user data on this site. These are home built wind turbines. The data and information presented is very real-world.
http://www.otherpower.com/otherpowerfront.shtml
Posted by Chuck on Feb 2, 2005 at 9:34 PM It’s time we “DRILLED” into the heads of certain politicians/individuals and “TAPPED” them for dwindling resources such as integrity, empathy, wisdom and common sense.
Posted by Jinny Lee on Feb 2, 2005 at 10:47 PM So now, maybe, alternative energy and biodiesel don’t lok so bad after all? Could be the Germans who use so much of ‘em know more than how to be despicable surrender monkeys as me an Karl and Georgie Boy call ‘em? hese would reduce dependance on Fossil Fools—- like me!
Posted by Ashoka Cheney on Feb 2, 2005 at 10:52 PM Back to cleaning horse shit off the mean streets of America. Unless, of course, that work gets “outsourced to either China or India.
Posted by SB on Feb 2, 2005 at 11:16 PM All this talk about achieving energy indepedendence is disingenuous because independence would take away some incentive to intervene in the affairs of oil-producing states whose alliances with the other powers of the world creates blocs of countries with interests that may not coincide with our own.
Posted by VK on Feb 3, 2005 at 5:03 PM We need to switch to compacy flourescent bulbs, and raise the CAFE standard to at least 35mpg. That alone would make a huge difference, both for preventing resource wars and pollution cleanup. I read somewhere that if only 27% of all cars were capable of getting 50mpg (such as current hybrids) then we wouldn’t need to buy ANY oil from the Middle East. So, maybe the very first post was correct: ditch the SUV, pickup, whatever, unless you really need it (ie, you are a housing contractor who needs to carry equipment and tools around all day).
Time to start thinking about other people instead of your own need to ride around in a jacked up penis substitute.
Posted by John Thomas on Feb 3, 2005 at 5:23 PM jacked up penis substitutes?????? i love it that i am not the only one who subscribes to the bigger the vehicle/the smaller the penis theory.
but really, the hypocracy of those who preach moral vlues at every opportunity…they can talk the talk but when it comes to walking the walk they fall miserably short of the objective. unless the objective is their own self serving interests, which any sane thinking individual can see is the fact.
and we wonder why the rest of the world hates us so?
Posted by divaofatlanta on Feb 4, 2005 at 8:03 PM Over the last half-decade, earth received 20% less solar energy/radiation at its surface, all the while a growing insulatory blanket of hydrocarbon particulates in our atmosphere has increased earths mean temperature by more than one degree. Not only is global warming here to stay, but weather patterns, driven by ocean currents (that are driven by 20% less solar influence), are in a permanent state of flux.
Is there hope? Of course there is. Is there reason for optimism? Stickier question, that.
Posted by loneski on Feb 5, 2005 at 5:34 PM Love reading everyone’s opinions…and here’s my 2 cents. The larger problem seems to be with the American public and the anti-intellectual movement that has swept our country over the last 30+ years. Ideology has replaced reason and science. Many folks do not care to learn, to open their minds, but rather want to hear “facts” that simply support their own narrow “vision of the world.” Nearly 30 years after the Carter administration, the US is even farther from energy independence and there’s nothing but complacency here. Nothing will change until the American public personally embraces the responsibility of a participatory democracy themselves and start applying critical thinking to our current situation. Let’s hear it for secular, public education, science for science sake, morality beyond abortion and homosexuality.
Posted by jgomd on Feb 8, 2005 at 3:26 AM jgomd, you SO hit the nail on the head! Anti-intellectual with a bullet, as if Americans or any human has a single gift to compare with their minds. Maybe it’s a by-product of ideology-linked loyalty standards from the Cold War, or maybe it’s because Einstein, Darwin, Galileo, etc etc unseated humans from the exalted center of the universe, and the anti-intellectuals still can’t handle it. Mindless entertainments and the culture of immediate gratification can also get a nod. One thing I’ve grown so sick of hearing in pop media is the endless litany of “follow your heart not your head”, as though intense emotion was the best basis for making complicated decisions, it’s bloody everywhere. Having worked in education for a couple of decades, I can tell you how tough it is to sell the idea that developing one’s mind is worthwhile to so many modern teens. Either their parents have dinned into them that diplomas = riches and that’s their only emphasis, or they’ve been told that “working the system” so as to get their own way is the point, not learning. I also can’t truthfully say that all my colleagues out there encourage the strengthening of intelligence, either, damn it, although there still are plenty who do (just try to control an unruly student or hold an athlete to an academic standard, though, and see what happens!). Thank God for the young ones who actually aspire to developing incisive, nimble minds, they’re what keep me going. Actually, if they get rich (if they do so ethically) from their hard work and sharp minds, great! Maybe they’ll teach their own kids to be learners. I actually had a young lady say aloud in class recently that she was planning, actually planning, to figure out a juicy lawsuit when she was an adult so she could get rich quick, I was stunned. Easier than getting smart and working hard, right? Wonder where she picked up that idea? No wonder we haven’t got the clue about efficient use of resources yet…
Posted by Kuya on Feb 9, 2005 at 3:00 AM RE: The HUMMER and SUV’s - the penis substitute…..hey, it’s cheaper and better for the environment (as long as you use it right)to get a “penile” implant!
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