COIN Toss

Maybe COIN resembles the management fads that occasionally sweep like a flu outbreak through corporate suites. If so, however, it will likely prove, like its corporate counterpart, regularly circumvented at the rank and file level. In the latest incident, it is reported that the air strike on a pair of tanker trucks captured by the Taliban was against the “spirit” of U.S. Army General Stanley McChrystal’s orders. In country troops don’t like orders that seem to let “bad guys” slip away too easily, perhaps to plant the IED that will kill them or their buddies the next day. Expect to see more “spirit” violations. The new doctrine will never fully take hold in the lower ranks.

In a way, the doctrine isn’t even being followed by the brass. Optimistic projections of NATO contributions and trained Afghan forces leave total force levels by the end of next year at less than one sixth of what the doctrine considers minimal. If the doctrine is even remotely correct we should expect the COIN campaign to be in deep trouble by that time and the call will go out for more troops—reinforced by the argument that having gone thus far we cannot allow the sacrifices already made by brave troops to be in vain.

In my view, the main danger isn’t that COIN will succeed so well as to encourage future military adventurism but that it will fail too slowly to avoid tragic loss of lives in the present conflict.

Posted by Craig Busse on Sep 7, 2009 at 5:36 AM