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With so many presidents, prime ministers and dictators visiting
New York in early September for the U.N. Millennium Summit--it was
billed as the biggest gathering of heads of state in history--more
than a few of those world leaders felt downright ignored by the
American mass media.
After all, with proven show-stoppers like Cuba's Fidel Castro and
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat around, what reporter wanted to
be left behind to cover Hasina Wazed, the prime minister of Bangladesh,
or Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, president of the Maldives, or even Britain's
Tony Blair?
No matter what publicity ploys the foreign dignitaries tried, Castro
and Arafat kept attracting most of the media attention, and the
longest applause, wherever they went. The reason is simple: These
two have defied U.S. government for so long, and have done it so
successfully, that they're now practically elder statesmen of the
opposition. Even many Americans who detest the pair see them as
almost comfortable adversaries. Besides, deep down inside, they
know that neither leader poses any threat to the American consumer's
way of life.
The same cannot be said of the rising new revolutionary star of
Latin America, President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela.
In the less than two years since he was elected, the 46-year-old
former military officer has sparked a remarkable social revolution,
one being felt both in his own nation and on the world scene. And
Venezuela is far more important to the United States than Cuba or
Palestine. Beneath its soil lie 73 billion barrels of oil, the largest
proven petroleum reserves in the Western Hemisphere.
Chávez was jailed in 1992 after staging a failed coup against
the government of Carlos Andres Perez. He served a few years in
jail, but rebounded quickly after huge corruption scandals drove
Perez from office. In December 1998, Chávez was elected by
a landslide on a populist agenda.
Since then, he has spearheaded an upheaval in Venezuelan society,
including the writing of a new constitution that goes against many
of the neoliberal policies favored by the United States. The constitution
forbids the privatization of Venezuela's social security, health
systems or the government-owned oil company, and it replaced the
old two-house congress, comprised largely of the nation's elite
class, with a new national assembly.
The Chávez government also has decreed a 44-hour work week,
down from 48 hours; it has started a huge FDR-type public-works
program to reduce the high unemployment rate; and it has forced
the corrupt trade unions to allow their members to elect leaders
directly. In wildly popular weekly radio broadcasts, Chávez
answers citizens' questions and resolves their problems. He even
has visited prisoners in Venezuela's notorious jails and promised
to address their complaints.
Most important to the rest of the world, Chávez and his
new oil minister, former left-wing guerrilla fighter Ali Rodriguez
Araque, have single-handedly put teeth back into the OPEC oil cartel.
They successfully convinced the other OPEC nations--as well as some
key non-OPEC countries like Mexico, Russia and Norway--to restrain
or cut back their production instead of secretly vying to exceed
their quotas. The new discipline has led to a tripling of the international
price of oil in less than two years, which in turn has sparked massive
protests across Europe and outcries from the United States over
the escalating price of gasoline and home heating oil.
For the first time in decades, the industrialized countries have
gotten a taste of the same medicine that cartels controlled by the
West regularly force upon the Third World. OPEC, which practically
had been declared dead by the great powers as its share of world
oil production dropped, once again is being watched anxiously by
the politicians and central bankers in London, Washington and Tokyo.
At the end of September, as a sign of that renewed strength, Chávez
will host the second-ever summit of the OPEC heads of state, on
the 40th anniversary of the cartel's founding. Only five years ago,
Venezuela was the world's largest supplier of oil to the United
States. Today, thanks to the Chávez strategy, it ranks third
behind Saudi Arabia and Mexico--but Venezuelans are earning considerably
more revenue from that reduced production. With those revenues,
Chávez hopes to finance his promises to the people.
Thanks to his peaceful revolution and cunning oil strategy, Chávez
has become the world leader who makes the State Department most
nervous these days--though you wouldn't know it by reading our national
press, which usually goes only where the State Department sends
it. Meanwhile, no doubt, some enterprising souls in obscure corners
of the CIA and Pentagon are already hard at work preparing seamy
contingency plans for Chávez. We can pretty well guess the
contours of these subversions of democracy from our government's
past practice in places like the Chile of Allende, the Haiti of
Aristide or, to go back even further, the Guatemala of Arbenz.
If so, Bill Clinton's $1.3 billion aid package for the drug war
in Colombia, which positions gobs of U.S. military advisers right
next door to Venezuela, could be seen in another way--as a security
deposit on a far greater future investment.
Oil and revolution, you see, are a dangerous mix. 
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