About 30 years ago, U.S. diplomats famously dismissed the civil war raging in the jungles of Cambodia as a “sideshow” to the Cold War. Callous as that was, the uncomfortable fact remains that the diplomats were probably right. As bloody and heartrending as the situation in Cambodia got by 1977, in the end it appears to have had only a… return to article
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Reader Comments (6)Page 1 of 1 pagesUS Empire heading for the final fall. HOORAY !!!!!!
Posted by blondemike on Feb 16, 2007 at 11:16 AM Leftover hubris from Manifest Destiny, industrial and commercial economic “miracles”, as well as fighting fascistic and socialistic militants to a stand-still (most of the pivotal events taking place within only a little more than a century), could be argued to have helped the US overreach itself recently, to the extent that it has actually done so (which is arguable). The author implies that this includes the overselling of secular democratic republicanism. It may be so. Many civilizations have fallen into the trap of thinking themselves to be eternal, incapable of failure, destined to lead the world, etc. No reason (at all!) to think the Americans are immune from this sort of self-mythologization.
Actually, we’re pretty mired in it.
I still have a pretty strong attachment to the ideals underlying secular democratic republicanism, but considering my cultural background and the historical period I grew up in, it’s not a surprise.
The caveats that came to my mind about China, Iran, and India when I read the article include:
China: Blistering fast growth may foster some pretty precipitous market corrections, i.e. recessions. If severe enough, I wonder if it could trigger some sort of neo-Maoist backlash, if the differential between the quality-of-life for upwardly mobile urban minorities and the hundreds of millions of peasants in the hinterlands widens. The Chinese tradition (incl. their “communist” incarnation) of unopposable authority also gives me pause. I tend to associate the overweaning thirst for control with decision-making trends that provoke dissatisfaction, anger, subversion, disruption of economic and social systems, etc.
India: Population density, and growth rate. It may be so that India can stabilize or at least moderate its population issues in time to NOT devour every good thing that their recently charged-up economy can offer, but prosperous humans don’t demand less from their environment, they demand more. They especially demand more for their children’s generation, as the symbol of the success of their own. If they follow the pattern of having fewer children as they prosper, as other countries have done, perhaps they can reduce this problem (FYI, the current pop. growth rate is 1.38% per year, which if unchanged would double India’s population in a little over 50 years… a lot when you already have 1.2B people).
Iran: Insofar as the “Islamic democracy” mentioned in the article, the big inhibitor to that will be if there’s any sustained enthusiasm for sharia law across the Muslim world. Sharia is not predicated upon participant-citizens directing society’s moves. It’s basic thrust is obedience to what is perceived/touted to be God’s law (subject, of course, to the ruling cadre telling us what “God’s law” implies, when Quran and Hadiths do not spell this out). If sharia is any different than any other totalitarian system (with all of their weaknesses), I have yet to have it explained to me exactly how it is different. I wonder too about how the Shia and Sunni factions will relate in the future. They’ve hated each other’s guts since long before there was a US, global capitalism, Western cohesion, etc.
Just a few musings. I’d be provisionally glad to see a more multilateral world evolve, but I think it’s far from certain that the three ancient powers will necessarily retake center stage. If nothing else, I think it’s quite plausible that each would see the others as rivals, as soon as their current perceived rivals to their West decline enough (to the extent that they do). And you know how “great powers” behave when they perceive a rival, eh?
Posted by Kuya on Feb 18, 2007 at 10:05 PM … the principal dynamic shaping life in the year 2037 will be the re-emergence of three ancient nations: China, India and Iran. Their powerful economies, muscular militaries, ambitious politicians, nationalistic populaces and resurgent cultures will irrevocably alter the lives of the 2.9 billion people who will then be living within their borders.
Ummm, probably not. None of their economies are very strong, their militaries are decidedly lacking, Iran, India, and China are fragmented into ethnic and religious constituencies, and their cultures are becoming more Westernized. Granting that Iran’s and China’s politicians are ambitious (one out of five ain’t bad?), when has this ever served to build a world class economy? It is more likely a recipe for disaster; think Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, and Saddam.
Iran’s economy is in terrible shape, due to the mismangement, inefficiency, and corruption of the ruling mullahs. There is no obvious reason to group Iran with China and India, as Iran is radically different in size (much smaller), ruling philosophy (Jihadist terrorist), and economic capability (near zero, in spite of underutilized and mismanaged oil wealth).
The economies of China and India are growing rapidly from a very low base, following years of socialist mismanagement, inefficiency, and corruption. China and India are the recipients and beneficiaries of Western capitalist and technological expertise, which they have eagerly embraced. India has long since adopted democracy, but China is trying to avoid democracy, which will present an interesting set of problems: can free-market capitalism coexist within a corrupt totalitarian state?
China in particular is refusing the democratic and rule-of-law principles that have made the democratic West strong, and there is no hope of China growing strong while avoiding the most important principles that have made the West the economic and cultural leader of the world. While Pocha is frothy about the growth of China and India (he is deluded in failing to note that the Irani economy is in long term decline, consonant with reasonable expectations of a rigidly controlled totalitarian economy), there is absolutely no prospect that China will grow to the levels Pocha anticipates.
China’s rapid growth superimposed on a corrupt and unstable base will certainly produce economic disruption, probably sufficient to destroy the totalitarian political structure. China is far and away the largest political entity in history that lacks a political philosophy, since the decay and termination of socialism as a guiding philosophy in China. Consequently, there is no loyalty to a cause except for the ruling class that is loyal only to the cause of its own advancement.
Increasingly Beijing, New Delhi and other Asian nations, including Thailand, are talking about using their surplus dollars to create their own financial institutions, such as an Asian Monetary Fund, that would lend Asian surpluses to Asian borrowers. Not only would this diminish the United States’ ability to dictate economic policy to borrowers, it would cement regional ties by giving Asian nations a vested interest in each other’s development and stability.
Posted by scorp on Feb 18, 2007 at 10:44 PM Pretty dense, Pocha. The United States economic policy IS “development and stability” for Asia and everywhere. Why else do you think Nixon went ot China? Have you been asleep for the last twenty years, like Rip van Winkle? Don’t you have any awareness at all outside you idiotic socialist agenda?
Yet, as Nye points out in his book, The Paradox of American Power, any U.S. attempt to undermine or contain the emergence of these new powers could backfire just like Britain, France and Russia’s attempts to contain Germany, Japan and Italy backfired a century ago.
Ummm, I must have missed that chapter in the history book. The last I heard, the fascist totalitarian states had been defeated, and had become prosperous peace-loving democracies. You obviously have later information. Can you provide a reference? I would be ever so grateful.
The real paradox is in means and goals. Totalitarian states have to bear the cost of imposing controls, making them inefficient and incapable of competing in a global economy. But when they surrender control, and establish free-market, rule-of-law, capitalistic democracy, prosperity and freedom thrives. You can see this process in action in Chile, Ireland, and Estonia, all of which have grown substantially in the last few years. You can also see the process in reverse. Chavez is wrecking the Venezuelan economy right before your very eyes.
Posted by scorp on Feb 18, 2007 at 10:45 PM Scorpy Doobie AKA Master Bates, from what rock did you just crawl out of ? China has a very strong economy and is still the fastest growing economy in the world. And India is moving up rapidly. Chile has 60% of its people below the poverty line including 40% in Santiago alone. Ireland has developed quite a bit but it started from a low base. The USA is in very serious trouble. Reagan’s #2 at Treasury, Paul Craig Roberts, has a piece titled “Economists In Denial: Blind To Offshoring’s Adverse Impact” in the Feb 6, 2007 Manufacturing and Technology News. Our debt, both governmental and personal is the highest in history and most Americans have ceased to save at all ! Debt driven consumption is exceeding US productive output by over 800 BILLION annually. Most of the investment in US plant has been by foreigners. Foreigners now own 2.7 TRILLION more of the US than the US owns abroad. Right now China is still supporting us but how long can this go on ? Alan Blinder, former Fed Vice-Chair, estimates that 50 MILLION US jobs could be outsourced ! Scorpy Doobie AKA Master Bates, we can’t get McDonald’s built fast enough to replace these jobs. So far Venezuela is doing well and have you noticed, Scorpy Doobie AKA Master Bates, that all of South America is voting in socialists. Colombia is the sole holdout and they are starting to crumble. The fascist states were authoritarian, not totalitarian, and they remain authoritarian, in Germany you can be imprisoned for thought crimes. Japan’s culture is thoroughly authoritarian and they even have central planning more now than before WW2. Chomsky calls Japan an example of successful Communism, as usual he’s right. By the way, neither India or China started from a low base. India was far better off under the Nehru socialists than as a Brit colony, in fact the Brits largely deindustrialized India during their rule and Mao’s China was about 20 times the GDP of Chiang Kai Chek. The worst threat to world peace has been the US Government since 1898 when they stole Hawaii, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Phillipines and other countries through a phony atrocity story campaign against Spain remininiscent of the lies people like Scorpy Doobie Master Bates made up about Saddam Hussein. Carter and Reagan supported Pol Pot, the Vietnamese Communists overthrew Pol Pot.
Posted by blondemike on Feb 19, 2007 at 12:12 PM But to go on Scorpy Doobie AKA Master Bates and other fascist conservaturds LOVE the most statist-collectivist-socialist-communist-fascist, anti-individualist part of the government, the military. Rather interesting for so-called opponents of “big government” wouldn’t you say ? Scorpy Doobie AKA Master Bates believes everything his tiny pea brain read in government propaganda classes about the nobility of all of America’s many wars and interventions. Scorpy Doobie AKA Master Bates gets every word that he writes from his mentor, Rush Limbaugh, usually Scorpy Doobie AKA Master Bates recycles it the same day. By the way, China politically is still very much a Marxist-Leninist State as you can see if you take the time to actually Chinese english official sources. But you have to move beyond Rush and O’Reilly and the Weekly Standard. You will notice that Scorpy Doobie AKA Master Bates regularly reprints unsourced neocon agit-prop. That is supposed to impress us, eh ? Then his so witty insults.........a wit with a capital SH....Ok, Kuya and others, please always address him as Scorpy Doobie AKA Master Bates. I’ve run his Blue State Ohio ass off every thread where he posts ! It’s a public servcie cleaning up after Scorpy Doobie AKA Master Bates mountains of excrement.
Posted by blondemike on Feb 19, 2007 at 12:24 PM Page 1 of 1 pages -
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